Several industries and their workforce in South Africa will soon face profound challenges linked to shifting economic dynamics, technological advancements, and environmental pressures.

These challenges are particularly acute in sectors reliant on natural gas, coal mining, automotive manufacturing, and clerical roles impacted by digital transformation.

The looming “gas cliff” exemplifies the gravity of the situation, with its ripple effects threatening the livelihoods of tens of thousands of workers.

At the heart of the natural gas crisis is the dwindling supply from Mozambique.

Sasol’s gas fields in Mozambique have been a critical energy source for South Africa, powering industries such as steel, glass, ceramics, automotive, and food production.

However, production from these fields is projected to decline sharply by 2027. Industries dependent on natural gas might face operational shutdowns, compounding the socio-economic strain on the country.

According to the Industrial Gas Users Association – Southern Africa (IGUA-SA), this looming gas supply cliff could jeopardise approximately 60,000 direct jobs.

The manufacturing sector is also under immense pressure, with ArcelorMittal South Africa serving as a stark example of the challenges ahead.

Specific industries within manufacturing, such as automotive and non-metallic minerals, have seen dramatic job losses.

For instance, the transport equipment sector alone reported a 20% decline in employment, equating to over 20,000 job cuts.

Meanwhile, South Africa’s coal industry faces a dual blow from declining demand and logistical challenges.

Transnet’s coal shipments from inland mines to export terminals plummeted to their lowest levels in decades last year, hampering the sector’s profitability.

Adding to the pressure, coal prices have plunged nearly 70% since their peak in September 2022. With global efforts to transition away from fossil fuels, the mining sector’s role in the economy is diminishing, threatening jobs in one of the country’s historically significant industries.

The automotive sector, a vital pillar of South Africa’s economy, employs over 110,000 people directly and engages approximately 500,000 more within its broader value chain.

However, the slow adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is putting the industry at risk. Major car manufacturers such as Toyota, Ford, and Volkswagen have raised concerns over South Africa’s sluggish transition to electric vehicles (EVs).

As international markets, particularly the European Union, tighten environmental regulations and adopt EVs more rapidly, South Africa risks falling behind. Without urgent action to modernise and adapt, the automotive industry’s relevance and competitiveness could erode, leading to significant job losses.

Agriculture faces its own challenges. Climate change, logistical inefficiencies, and water shortages pose significant threats to long-term productivity.

Droughts and a failing water supply system have already strained the sector, which is critical for food security and employment.

Projections from PwC indicate that by 2035, nearly 25% of maize production and over a third of wheat production could be at risk due to rising temperatures.

These challenges not only threaten the agricultural workforce but also exacerbate food insecurity in the country, PwC said.

Digital transformation presents another formidable challenge to the job market, including South Africa’s.

The World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2025 highlights a dual-edged scenario where 19 million jobs could be created globally by 2030, but 9 million may be displaced.

Clerical roles are particularly vulnerable, with postal service clerks and bank tellers expected to see the steepest declines.

The South African Post Office’s struggles, including branch closures and threats of liquidation, illustrate the vulnerability of these roles.

Similarly, South Africa’s Big Four banks – Standard Bank, FirstRand, Nedbank, and Absa – collectively cut 7,000 jobs between 2019 and 2024 as they reduced physical locations in response to digital banking trends.

South Africa’s economic landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, and the implications for employment are stark.

From the gas supply cliff to the slow adoption of EVs, each challenge underscores the urgent need for innovation, investment, and adaptability to safeguard jobs and secure the nation’s economic future.
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Originally published on BusinessTech